Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) produces a monthly market report and the most recent month is March 2014. You can review that report in it's entirety here: http://www.nefar.com/filebin/pdbdb/33/838_33.pdf.
There are many pages in this report, but Fleming Island statistics are on page 31. The year to date trend from January 2014-March 2014 shows the median sale price increased 24.3% ($200,000 to $248,500), compared to the same period last year. The number of new listings is up 20.2% (178 to 214) compared to the same period last year, while the number of closed sales fell 6.9% (101 to 94).
The NEFAR report illustrates a trend experienced across the country. Sale prices and number of listings are increasing while absorption, or number of closed sales is declining. This is particularly interesting because sales usually increase in March and April.
The market is behaving differently this year. Some suggest the slow start was due to unusually cold weather while others indicate the slight increase in the interests rates is to blame. Interest rates, however, are around 4.5 percent, up just over one percentage point since March 2013.
Absorption and inventory levels have become two very important criteria to watch in 2014 as sellers enter the market with higher expectations. Six months of supply (listings) is generally considered a balanced market.
During the period from April to October 2013 the inventory level was less than two months supply with 40 active listings and about 25.83 units sold per month (40/25.83=1.55 months supply). From October 2013 to January 2014 it was up to 3.9 months supply as inventory increased and absorption declined (67 listings/17 average monthly absorption = 3.94 months supply). Over the last 90 days the supply increased to 6.86 months and resulted from an increase in the number of listings and a decline in average absorption (112 listings/16.33 absorption = 6.86 months supply).
The chart above shows trends over the last 12 months for non-distressed, detached homes in Fleming Island that are not fronting a navigable water way like the St. Johns River, Drs. Lake, creeks, or canals.
My next post will discuss the Fleming Island data in a little more detail by analyzing Eagle Harbor, Pace Island, Fleming Island Plantation and all others separately. Eagle Harbor accounted for over 40% of the sales and had the highest median price per square foot over the last 12 months.
nefar market report 3-2014.pdf